Top 5 Extreme Bullish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Downward Reversal, with Opposing Commercials)These show speculators heavily net-long, contrasted by commercial net-shorts (classic contrarian setup for pullbacks).
Top 5 Extreme Bearish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Upward Reversal, with Opposing Commercials)These reflect speculators heavily net-short, offset by commercial net-longs (suggesting undervaluation and potential short-covering rallies).
Rank | Market | Spec Net Position (Contracts) | Commercial Net Position (Contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gold (COMEX) | +161,375 | -239,803 |
2 | Lean Hogs (CME) | +140,103 | -8,809 |
3 | Live Cattle (CME) | +121,050 | -25,635 |
4 | Silver (COMEX) | +46,265 | -65,988 |
5 | Copper #1 (COMEX) | +48,110 | -58,368 |
Rank | Market | Spec Net Position (Contracts) | Commercial Net Position (Contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Natural Gas (NYMEX) | -560,483 | +322,625 |
2 | WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX) | -468,511 | +283,712 |
3 | Wheat SRW (CBOT) | -109,295 | +18,511 |
4 | Crude Oil WTI (ICE Europe) | -140,692 | +18,026 |
5 | Platinum (NYMEX) | +19,073 (bullish, but included for opp. extreme divergence) | -25,659 |
Top 5 Extreme Bullish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Downward Reversal)
These markets show speculators at near-record net-long levels, potentially vulnerable to profit-taking or reversals.
Rank | Market | Net Position (Contracts) | Strength Index (3-Year Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Russell 2000 Mini | +26,337 | 100.0% |
2 | VIX | +322 | 100.0% |
3 | Platinum | +28,387 | 93.8% |
4 | Coffee | +66,950 | 91.1% |
5 | Australian Dollar | +19,269 | 90.0% |
Top 5 Extreme Bearish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Upward Reversal)These markets reflect speculators at near-record net-short levels, which could unwind and drive prices higher if sentiment shifts.
Rank | Market | Net Position (Contracts) | Strength Index (3-Year Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | US Dollar Index | -2,100 | 0.0% |
2 | 5-Year Bond | -1,630,024 | 6.5% |
3 | 2-Year Bond | -1,342,260 | 8.6% |
4 | 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate | -215,156 | 9.6% |
5 | Heating Oil | -6,710 | 14.0% |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETF Suggestions for COT Reversal OpinionsBased on the latest COT analysis (as of September 23, 2025), here are targeted ETF recommendations to express the contrarian views: bearish on gold, silver, copper, and platinum (expecting downward reversals from overcrowded spec long positions against commercial shorts) and bullish on natural gas and crude oil (expecting upward reversals from spec short squeezes against commercial longs). I've focused on liquid, established ETFs with direct or leveraged exposure. For bearish views, prioritize inverse/leveraged short ETFs where available; for bullish, use long or 2x leveraged ones. Note: These are not direct futures trackers but provide efficient spot/miner exposure—always check fees, liquidity, and tax implications (e.g., K-1 forms for some commodity funds).Bearish Positions (Short Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum)Use inverse ETFs to profit from potential price declines. Leveraged options amplify moves but increase risk/volatility.
Bullish Positions (Long Natural Gas, Crude Oil)Focus on commodity-tracking or leveraged energy ETFs for upside capture.
Notes:
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | ProShares UltraShort Gold | GLL | 2x inverse daily gold price | Direct bet against gold spot; tracks -2x GLD performance. Strong for short-term reversals. |
Silver | ProShares UltraShort Silver | ZSL | 2x inverse daily silver price | Leveraged short on silver; pairs well with SLV long for hedging. |
Copper | Global X Copper Miners ETF (short via inverse broad metals) | COPX (short) | Miners-focused; use for short exposure via broker shorting | No pure inverse copper ETF; COPX tracks miners (levered to copper prices). Short it for downside. Alternative: CPER (long copper) to short. |
Platinum | abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (short) | PPLT (short) | Physical platinum-backed; spot exposure | Direct platinum price tracker; short for bearish view. GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM) as alternative. |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural Gas | United States Natural Gas Fund | UNG | Tracks nat gas futures (front-month roll) | Core long exposure; simple for reversal plays. For leverage: ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL, 2x). |
Crude Oil | United States Oil Fund | USO | Tracks WTI crude futures | Benchmark for WTI; liquid and direct. For leverage: ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO, 2x) or United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO). |
- These ETFs allow leveraged expression without direct futures trading. For example, GLL/ZSL offer 2x downside on metals, while UCO/BOIL provide amplified upside on energy.
- As of October 2025, precious metals like gold/silver have been strong YTD, heightening reversal risk. Energy funds like UNG have lagged but show setup for rebound.
- Risk: Commodity ETFs can face contango/roll costs; use for tactical trades, not long-term holds. Consult a financial advisor and monitor CFTC updates post-shutdown.Explain contango risks in ETFsCOT signals for soybeans
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Russell 2000 Mini | ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 | TWM | 2x inverse daily Russell 2000 | Leveraged bet against small-cap index; ideal for reversal pullback. |
VIX | ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures | SVXY | -0.5x inverse VIX futures (long vol unwind) | Profits from VIX decline; use for spec long unwind in volatility. |
Platinum | abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (short) | PPLT (short) | Physical platinum-backed; spot exposure | Direct short on platinum price; alternative: GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM). |
Coffee | iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (short) | JO (short) | Tracks coffee futures | Commodity ETN for coffee exposure; short for bearish reversal. |
Australian Dollar | ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar | CROC | 2x inverse daily AUD/USD | Leveraged currency short; direct play on AUD weakness. |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
US Dollar Index | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | UUP | Tracks USD Index futures | Core long USD exposure; simple for strength reversal. For leverage: WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU). |
5-Year Bond | iShares 5-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEI | Tracks 5-10Y U.S. Treasuries | Intermediate bond proxy; rises with yields fall/short-cover. For leverage: ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury (UST). |
2-Year Bond | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | SHY | Tracks 1-3Y U.S. Treasuries | Short-end bond exposure; benefits from rate cut expectations. |
1-Month SOFR | Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | SGOV | Tracks short-term T-bills (SOFR-linked) | Cash-like yield play; gains from rate stability/short unwind. |
Heating Oil | United States Heating Oil Fund | UHN | Tracks heating oil futures | Direct commodity long; seasonal rebound potential. |
- These ETFs align with the 2024 spec extremes, e.g., TWM for overbought small-caps, UUP for USD short squeeze. As of October 2025, many of these (like bonds) have shifted with Fed policy—recheck COT for updates post-shutdown.
- Risk: Leveraged ETFs (e.g., TWM, CROC) decay over time; best for tactical trades. Energy/currency funds can be volatile. Not financial advice—pair with current charts and consult professionals.
Ticker | Name | Price | Week High | Week Low | 52W High | 52W Low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLL | ProShares UltraShort Gold | 13.81 | 14.85 | 13.28 | 36.9 | 13.28 | |
ZSL | ProShares UltraShort Silver | 12.65 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 42.66 | 11.3 | |
COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 61.11 | 64.27 | 60.38 | 66.2 | 30.77 | |
PPLT | abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF | 146.21 | 157.85 | 145.73 | 157.85 | 82.35 | |
UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund | 11.87 | 12.3 | 11.55 | 24.33 | 11.55 | |
USO | United States Oil Fund | 67.98 | 70.89 | 67.44 | 84.58 | 60.67 | |
TWM | ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 | 33.33 | 34.15 | 30.96 | 71.27 | 30.96 | |
SVXY | ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | 47.72 | 49.62 | 45.4 | 54.04 | 32.05 | |
JO | iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
CROC | ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
UUP | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 27.75 | 28 | 27.71 | 30.69 | 26.8 | |
IEI | iShares 5-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 120.18 | 120.37 | 119.73 | 120.37 | 114.51 | |
SHY | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 83.08 | 83.13 | 82.93 | 83.13 | 81.67 | |
SGOV | Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 100.57 | 100.57 | 100.5 | 100.74 | 100.15 | |
UHN | United States Heating Oil Fund | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
- Data as of October 18, 2025 (latest available close; market closed on weekends).
- N/A indicates no recent trading data available (e.g., delisted or low-volume ETFs like JO, CROC, UHN).
- Trading range last week: High/low over the prior 7 calendar days (actual trading days may vary). Prices rounded to 2 decimals.
- Chart links point to Yahoo Finance interactive charts for each symbol.
COPX, CROC, GLL, IEI, JO, PPLT, SGOV, SHY, SVXY, TWM, UHN, UNG, USO, UUP, ZSL
https://finance.yahoo.com/portfolio/p_5/view/v1
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SGOL&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
