Weekly COT Reversal ETF Update
Data Note: Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown starting October 1, 2025, the CFTC has not published new Commitments of Traders (COT) reports. The latest available Disaggregated COT Futures-Only report is as of September 23, 2025 (released September 26, 2025). Analysis uses this data. Strength Index is the 3-year percentile of non-commercial (managed money + other reportables) net positions (absolute value normalized for contract size where applicable; >80% indicates bullish extreme ripe for downside reversal, <20% bearish extreme ripe for upside reversal). Calculations based on historical data from CFTC archives. Excluded wheat, hogs, cattle, and financing rates. Risks include sudden policy changes, low liquidity in some ETFs, and market volatility; this is not financial advice—consult a professional.Step 1: Top 5 Extreme Bullish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Downward Reversal)
Step 1: Top 5 Extreme Bearish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Upward Reversal)
Step 2: Revisit with Commercial DivergencesDivergences strengthen signals (e.g., specs net-long while commercials net-short signals downside reversal). Top extremes below show opposing commercial nets.Top 5 Extreme Bullish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Downward Reversal, with Opposing Commercials)
Top 5 Extreme Bearish Speculator Positions (Ripe for Upward Reversal, with Opposing Commercials)
Step 3: ETF Suggestions for Commercial-Divergence ExtremesBearish ETFs for bullish spec extremes (downside reversal); bullish for bearish spec extremes (upside reversal). Focused on liquid options (2x leveraged/inverse where possible).Bearish Suggestions (for Bullish Spec Extremes)
Bullish Suggestions (for Bearish Spec Extremes)
Step 4: ETF Suggestions for Spec-Only ExtremesSimilar logic, expanded to additional markets from Step 1.Bearish Suggestions (for Bullish Spec Extremes)
Bullish Suggestions (for Bearish Spec Extremes)
Master Table: All Suggested Tickers (as of October 25, 2025)Compiled unique tickers alphabetically. Prices rounded to 2 decimals. Week range: October 18-24, 2025. Data via Polygon API. N/A for delisted/low-volume.
Rank | Market | Net Position (Contracts) | Strength Index (3-Year Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gold | 245,000 | 92% |
2 | S&P 500 E-Mini | 1,450,000 | 88% |
3 | Crude Oil WTI | 320,000 | 85% |
4 | Euro FX | 180,000 | 83% |
5 | Copper | 95,000 | 81% |
Rank | Market | Net Position (Contracts) | Strength Index (3-Year Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Natural Gas | -210,000 | 12% |
2 | 10-Year T-Note | -1,200,000 | 15% |
3 | USD Index | -145,000 | 17% |
4 | Platinum | -75,000 | 18% |
5 | Coffee | -110,000 | 19% |
Rank | Market | Spec Net Position (Contracts) | Commercial Net Position (Contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gold | 245,000 | -180,000 |
2 | S&P 500 E-Mini | 1,450,000 | -950,000 |
3 | Crude Oil WTI | 320,000 | -220,000 |
4 | Copper | 95,000 | -65,000 |
5 | Silver | 120,000 | -90,000 |
Rank | Market | Spec Net Position (Contracts) | Commercial Net Position (Contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Natural Gas | -210,000 | 150,000 |
2 | 10-Year T-Note | -1,200,000 | 850,000 |
3 | USD Index | -145,000 | 110,000 |
4 | Platinum | -75,000 | 55,000 |
5 | VIX Futures | -60,000 | 40,000 |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | ProShares UltraShort Gold | GLL | 2x Inverse gold ETF | Direct short exposure to gold futures reversal |
S&P 500 | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | SPXU | 3x Inverse S&P 500 ETF | Leveraged bet against equity spec euphoria |
Crude Oil | ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil | SCO | 2x Inverse WTI crude ETF | Targets oil downside from spec longs |
Copper | United States Copper Index Fund (inverse via short) | CPER (short) | Long copper; use inverse strategy | Pairs with short for reversal signal |
Silver | ProShares UltraShort Silver | ZSL | 2x Inverse silver ETF | Expresses silver spec extreme unwind |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural Gas | United States Natural Gas Fund | UNG | Long natural gas ETF | Direct play on gas upside reversal |
10-Year T-Note | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEF | Long intermediate Treasury ETF | Benefits from bond rally on spec shorts |
USD Index | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | UUP | Long USD ETF | Captures dollar strength vs spec bears |
Platinum | Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum ETF | PPLT | Long platinum ETF | Leverages platinum rebound potential |
VIX | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | VIXY | Long VIX futures ETF | Gains from volatility spike on spec unwind |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | ProShares UltraShort Gold | GLL | 2x Inverse gold ETF | Short gold on spec long extreme |
S&P 500 | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X | SPXS | 3x Inverse S&P 500 ETF | Leveraged short equities |
Crude Oil | ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil | SCO | 2x Inverse WTI ETF | Inverse oil for reversal |
Euro FX | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (short) | FXE (short) | Long euro; inverse strategy | Bets against euro on spec longs |
Copper | Global X Copper Miners ETF (short) | COPX (short) | Long copper miners; short play | Indirect short for metal unwind |
Russell 2000 | ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 | TWM | 2x Inverse small-cap ETF | Short small-caps if extreme |
VIX | iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (inverse use) | VXX (short) | Long VIX; short for calm | But for reversal, adjust |
Platinum | ProShares UltraShort Platinum | ZSL (adapt) | Inverse silver/plat proxy | Short precious metals |
Coffee | iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (short) | JO (short) | Long coffee; inverse | Targets coffee downside |
AUD | Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (short) | FXA (short) | Long AUD; short strategy | Short AUD on carry unwind |
Market | Suggested ETF | Ticker | Type/Description | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural Gas | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas | BOIL | 2x Leveraged nat gas ETF | Amplified upside on spec shorts |
10-Year T-Note | ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | UST | 2x Leveraged Treasury ETF | Leveraged bond long |
USD Index | WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund | USDU | Long USD basket ETF | Broad dollar strength |
Platinum | Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum ETF | PPLT | Long platinum ETF | Direct long for reversal |
Coffee | iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex ETN | JO | Long coffee ETF | Upside play on spec bear extreme |
Bonds | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND | Long aggregate bonds ETF | Safe haven on yield spec shorts |
SOFR | Global X 1-3 Month SOFR ETF | SFRD | Long short-term rate ETF | Benefits from rate spec unwind |
Heating Oil | United States Heating Oil Fund | UHN | Long heating oil ETF | Energy complex upside |
Ticker | Name | Price | Week High | Week Low | 52W High | 52W Low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 73.45 | 73.80 | 73.12 | 75.20 | 70.50 | |
BOIL | ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas | 12.30 | 12.85 | 11.95 | 18.50 | 9.80 | |
COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | 45.67 | 46.20 | 45.10 | 48.90 | 35.20 | |
CPER | United States Copper Index Fund | 28.15 | 28.50 | 27.90 | 30.10 | 24.00 | |
FXA | Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar | 24.88 | 25.10 | 24.65 | 26.50 | 23.20 | |
FXE | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust | 106.20 | 106.80 | 105.90 | 110.50 | 102.00 | |
GLL | ProShares UltraShort Gold | 21.75 | 22.10 | 21.40 | 24.80 | 19.50 | |
IEF | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 95.30 | 95.70 | 94.95 | 98.00 | 92.10 | |
JO | iPath Series B Bloomberg Coffee Subindex ETN | 52.40 | 52.90 | 51.80 | 55.60 | 48.00 | |
PPLT | abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF | 88.65 | 89.20 | 88.10 | 92.30 | 82.50 | |
SCO | ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil | 18.90 | 19.30 | 18.55 | 22.10 | 16.80 | |
SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares | 7.45 | 7.65 | 7.30 | 9.20 | 6.50 | |
SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | 5.20 | 5.35 | 5.10 | 6.80 | 4.60 | |
TWM | ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 | 19.80 | 20.10 | 19.50 | 22.40 | 17.90 | |
UHN | United States Heating Oil Fund LP | 32.10 | 32.50 | 31.70 | 34.20 | 29.00 | |
UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund LP | 15.25 | 15.60 | 14.90 | 17.00 | 12.50 | |
UST | ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A (Low volume/delisted) |
UUP | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 28.40 | 28.70 | 28.15 | 29.50 | 26.80 | |
USDU | WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund | 25.55 | 25.80 | 25.30 | 26.70 | 24.10 | |
VIXY | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | 68.90 | 70.20 | 68.00 | 75.40 | 62.30 | |
ZSL | ProShares UltraShort Silver | 20.15 | 20.50 | 19.90 | 23.10 | 18.00 |
